Far, far away from where I sit in Bengaluru, lies a tranquil sea on the western shores of South America. No matter where one lives, one must care about this coast, and the temperature of the waters there. It impacts us in all sorts of ways, like how hot our summers get, how expensive our vegetables become, and how heavily it will rain in the coming monsoons. If the ocean water is the average (or “neutral”) temperature, all is well. If it is cooler than usual (an event called La Nina), some countries suffer, but India enjoys a bounty. But warm waters on the coasts of Peru (the El Nino) tend to spell drought and distress for us.
These warm waters affect the flow of winds and how they pick up moisture, resulting in them being framed as the evil that affects weather, lives, and livelihoods. In reality, it is actually a part of the ebbs and flows of natural climatic patterns. Thanks to climate change, both El Nino and its cold counterpart, La Nina, are persisting for longer, becoming more frequent, and possibly more intense. This makes it harder for ecosystems to recover from the disruptions that these phenomena cause—and that is cause for concern. This year, a new term is strewn across the news: the “super El Nino”, a scarier version of everything that the warm seawaters of Peru imply.
What makes it ‘super’
The premise of the El Nino currents is simple: usually, trade winds (equatorial winds flowing east-to-west) carry warm waters from the Peruvian coast towards Indonesia. In their place, cool water rises up the ocean to occupy Peru’s shores. For reasons science has not yet fully understood, the trade winds weaken at irregular intervals every 2-7 years, and warm water stays back in South America. Without sufficient heat building up at the Indonesian coast, cloud formation is affected, and India’s southwest monsoons are weakened.
The April 2026 update of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates an increasing likelihood that a strong El Nino event will occur as early as May–July 2026, and peak in 2027 before receding. Ordinarily, an El Nino is declared when the sea surface temperature in the central Pacific Ocean exceeds 0.5°C above the long-term average temperature for a few sustained, consecutive months. While a ‘super’ El Nino is not an official term, it is used when the estimated rise in the sea’s temperature is more than 2°C. The last three super El Niño events occurred in 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83. The 2015-16 El Niño led to a record global annual average temperature at the time, a record that 2027 is now predicted to snatch.
Thanks to climate change, both El Nino and its cold counterpart, La Nina, are persisting for longer
There are caveats to this declaration of ‘super’: firstly, this forecast is muddied because it is difficult to predict an abnormality like the El Nino when seasonal changes are also causing variations in weather patterns. Moreover, overall global warming trends affect the baselines that are used to calculate if the rise in sea temperature is an abnormality. What is important, though, is that the figure and intensity is disputed–not the fact that El Nino (‘the little boy’) is visiting.
Also read: In the battle of Alphonso vs Kesar, climate change plays dirty
Strained resources
Most literature on El Nino discusses its impact on the Indian monsoons (and rightfully so), but it begins affecting our weather earlier on, contributing directly to heatwaves. Heatwaves reduce productivity of staple crops, livestock, and commercial fish while simultaneously making working conditions unbearable for farm labour, especially women. The risk extends beyond farm productivity—agricultural workers are 35 times more likely to die from occupational heat exposure than all workers combined in other sectors.
This harsh summer is followed by a below-normal southwest monsoon, dropping to 92% of the long period average this year according to forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The heat has already put soil moisture, groundwater and surface water under stress due to increased evaporation and increased demand for water due to the heat. This reduces the water available for domestic, industrial, and agricultural use.
While a ‘super’ El Nino is not an official term, it is used when the estimated rise in the sea’s temperature is more than 2°C.
The water required for agriculture is worth dwelling on for many reasons, including its key role in providing employment as well as food security. Rain-fed irrigation accounts for around 50% of India’s net sown area, and around 40% of the total food production. Of the remaining half of the sown area, groundwater sources like tubewells make up a significant chunk. All of these sources, including the moisture the soil itself stores to remain healthy, are compromised by the El Nino.
This context is important to comprehend what a weak and delayed monsoon means for an Indian farmer. With rain-fed crops, a farmer’s sowing cycle depends on when the monsoons will come—planting too soon and too late both carry consequences, impacting crop quality and yield.
Findings from a 2025 study add nuance to this conversation: while El Nino reduces net summer rainfall, it paradoxically increases the frequency and intensity of heavy daily rainfall. This means that the little rainfall that farmers receive is hard to harness, and tends to destroy rather than nurture crops.
Rain-fed irrigation accounts for around 50% of India’s net sown area, and around 40% of the total food production.
This hits farmer incomes, even after the El Nino event passes. An RBI paper studying the 2015-16 super El Nino noted that rural wages remained subdued even after agricultural growth resumed. Data also suggests that more people have moved into agriculture after the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning that the economic distress affects more people. Produce from livestock, like milk and eggs, which often serve as contingent sources of income during times of drought, are also affected by El Nino. The supply crunch created by reduced grain, vegetable, and dairy production increases prices for consumers as well. The RBI’s inflation projections for the year captures this. Its inflation prediction peaks in the third quarter (October to December), which is when the impact of the monsoons on food prices will become most apparent. That said, there is some cautious optimism. An SBI Research statement points out that our stock of foodgrains is sufficient to “thwart any untoward disruption” caused by dips in Kharif production.
Also read: Climate change in my cup: Why India’s cocoa and coffee production is at risk
Building resilience
The one silver lining with El Nino is that predictive mechanisms are well established, and afford us time to prepare. The most critical of preparatory measures is early warning systems that alert farmers to extreme weather conditions and provide guidance on potential remedial measures.
The agrometeorological advisory services that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides to farmers via television, radio, and SMS are a step in this direction.
Adapting agricultural practices to this changing reality is another way to arrest how badly it affects farmers. This includes shifting to efficient irrigation and water management practices, embracing climate-resilient crop varieties, and practicing multicropping and agroforestry to maintain soil health. A statement by the agricultural ministry shared that, thanks to coordinated efforts on better water management, irrigation, and agricultural practices, the country’s reservoir storage is at 127.01% of the normal level for this period. This water is considered crucial in softening El Nino’s impact on the Kharif crops.
While these measures can actively combat the damage that El Nino is causing, climatologists urge us to look at the larger picture.
While these measures can actively combat the damage that El Nino is causing, climatologists urge us to look at the larger picture. The oceans are absorbing over 93% of the additional heat generated because of global warming. It is this heat that collects over the East Pacific ocean to cause El Nino. Climatologist James Hansen compares this heat build up to a battery, saying that “human-made warming is decreasing the time needed to recharge the battery” and making El Ninos more and more frequent. The El Nino, thus, is not the disease, but the symptom. How we tackle global warming is going to define our future.
Read more: A crop for the future: Why India should invest in ragi and its climate resilience
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